|
“Scientists tend to point to the Arctic
and the Antarctic climates as the signs of things to
come. Climate change in those areas could rise as high
as six degrees in the winter months, according to some
projections from the IPCC.”
By Dr. Courtney:
All GCM projections of AGW indicate little warming in
tropical regions and most warming in Polar Regions as
a response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.
This is because of the effects of atmospheric moisture
concentration.
The main greenhouse gas is water (H2O) not carbon dioxide
(CO2). Water is by far the major greenhouse gas. Estimates
vary, but water is responsible for at least 70% of the
radiative greenhouse effect. Cold air contains less water
than warm air (which is why dew forms just before dawn),
and the air in near polar-regions is very cold so it contains
almost no water. Hence, any effects of changes to carbon
dioxide in the air will not be masked by effects of water
in near-polar regions, so effects of changes to carbon
dioxide in the air will be most clear in the near polar-regions.
For this reason it is often asserted that the rapid warming
now occurring in the Arctic region is evidence for AGW.
But, while the Arctic is warming, the Antarctic is cooling.
Nobody knows why either is happening. All we know is that
near-polar temperatures have always fluctuated wildly
although they are always cold.
So, if one were to claim that the current Arctic warming
is evidence that AGW is happening then one would have
to accept that the current Antarctic cooling is evidence
that AGW is not happening.
And, since nobody knows why the Arctic is warming while
the Antarctic is cooling, it is not possible to make a
scientific prediction of their future temperatures.
back to NRSP News
|
